The grandest of American traditions will soon be taking center stage early in the first quarter of 2008, and already in some circles the pending 2008 political season is eclipsing everything else in the media landscape. Indeed, the 2008 political cycle promises to be very interesting on a number of fronts. Estimates place the total media spend for 2008 at $3 billion. For perspective, 2006 political spending closely hovered around the $2 billion mark, a 25% increase over 2005. Due to the enormity of 2006 political spending, 20-40% of local spots were preempted in the third and fourth quarters of 2006. This was because political advertising had saturated local station inventory and federal candidates are guaranteed to run.

Background
There are three major factors driving the increased political spending. First is the recent Supreme Court decision that lessened the restrictions of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Bill. This ruling, while a win for free speech, took most of the restrictions off special interest groups’ spending caps. Second, 2008 will be the first presidential election in over 50 years that has neither an incumbent president nor vice president running for office. Finally, in addition to the presidential race, one third of the US Senate is up for election as well as all the House of Representatives. There are also eleven states that are holding gubernatorial elections.

What does this all mean for local spot advertisers? Should we just write 2008 off because of the political spending? For most advertisers this is just not practical or really necessary. With well planned out strategies it is possible to minimize the impact that political advertising will have on your advertising plans. In the following sections, we want to look at the impact political advertising will have on each medium and some key strategies to consider for 2008.

The Planning Mindset
The first thing that advertisers should recognize is the need to start planning early for 2008, and understand the need to consider alternative strategies beyond the traditional. Also, given the fact that the impact of political campaigns are always evolving, adjustments might be required throughout the year to ensure schedules run close to what was ordered. At this point, we are projecting the heaviest spending to occur in the fourth quarter of 2008 followed by the first quarter of 2008, but spending will also be heavy in second and third quarters of the year. The heaviest spend will occur in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. However, other “hot markets” could develop depending on what issues or races become important to the national parties. It should also be noted that some states and DMAs are not going to see any disruption because they are safe for one party or the other.

Spot TV
How should local spot advertisers approach planning and buying TV in 2008? First, look closely at flighting and be aware of key political windows. Political advertising is going to be heavy leading up to Super Tuesday (2/5) with the political window opening up 45 days prior to this date. Also, the entire month of October will see political pressure leading up to the general election (11/3). Candidates tend to buy all of the news dayparts, plus prime access and recently early fringe is becoming a sought after area for some campaigns. If possible, utilize a flexible buying strategy in heavy political windows. Advertisers might also look at laying in a baseline of media and plan for flexible dollars across months and quarters.

Timing is also an important consideration. Consider heavier spending in the last two weeks of the month in an effort to avoid competing with automotive dollars. Another strategy is to look at moving GRPs to run toward the end of the week because political spending is usually placed with stations at the end of the week to air early the following week. Another planning strategy to consider is to over plan and over buy GRPs expecting to see some displacement occur in schedules. This can be risky because schedules might run intact, so backend maintenance will be critical to making this an effective strategy for advertisers.

Spot Cable
Adding cable to an overall media strategy is a viable alternative because it offers advertisers a way to be on TV locally when broadcast inventory is at a premium. Cable TV does see a large amount of political dollars, but the majority is focused on news networks.

Cable also has the opportunity to use targeted networks in place of over-used political dayparts including early news, prime access and prime time.

Spot Radio
There are many different facets to geographical targeting. Reaching consumers with the greatest potential of becoming a customer becomes easier through geographical targeting. Radio may be dominated by political talk, but stations have not enjoyed the same cash windfall that spot TV has seen. The nation’s largest radio owners are trying to change this trend heading into 2008 with limited acceptance. There are two major hurdles facing radio, one that it is seen as a red state medium and that video drives the message. Radio operators are working on ways to attract candidates, including integrated interactive elements with on-air spots. Some stations, however, will see political dollars including news/talk, urban, and Hispanic stations as campaigns try and reach voters.

When planning for 2008, radio might be a good alternative strategy to consider because most stations do not pre-empt schedules. As radio has shorter creative deadlines and can be changed easily, this would allow for retail and other time sensitive advertisers to go on-air fast if TV dayparts become maxed out.

New Media outlets having an impact
The 2008 political season will also see new media outlets being factored into a candidate’s strategy as they formulate their communications and allocate precious campaign resources. In fact, most top tier candidates have launched their campaigns on the Internet and have fully integrated online and offline strategies. Traditional advertisers might do well to follow the lead of the candidates heading into 2008. When approaching an online strategy, traditional advertisers should keep in mind that the normal way of evaluating media options will need to be adopted and not just focus on CPMs. While the audiences might be smaller, the Internet gives advertisers a new way to engage potential customers.

Also, advertisers might want to consider an online strategy that includes utilizing TV station websites, which can stream short form TV spots. Depending on the market size, most stations can offer advertisers a wide array of advertising options that go way beyond the banners.

Print
Like radio, newspapers and magazines have had difficulty capturing a significant share of campaign dollars for a majority of the same reasons. Print is a solid alternative media strategy to spot TV, because it can effectively reach key consumers. In fact, as voters look for information on candidates or issues, newsweeklies could see an increase in readership.

Print does have one major advantage to consider in a tight political year – they can simply add another page to take more advertising. Spot radio and TV simply can’t add another unit to a newscast.

Outdoor
The key to an effective outdoor strategy is to plan and book early to avoid a sellout of prime locations. The increased demand from traditional advertisers will affect avails from outdoor companies. Consider utilizing outdoor in the key political months of September, October and November. Remember, outdoor has the same rate card for all candidates and advertisers alike, and a signed contract cannot be broken.

Summary
If 2008 does turn into the political firestorm we are expecting, it will be a challenge for everyone in the media business. However, with careful planning and utilizing well thought out strategies, advertisers can successfully navigate the year and still deliver their campaign message. Remember, early plan approval is a must, and get into the marketplace as soon as possible to secure inventory for the year.

Expect the political stage to be set by the first quarter of 2008 with all of the candidates gearing up for state primaries and the general election. This means that constant tweaks may need to be made to the planning and buying process early and continue throughout the year. While it may seem like an overwhelming obstacle, everyone will survive the 2008 elections, and we can all look forward to planning for the elections of 2010 and 2012.