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Analytics
Updated Data Science Monitors COVID Hot Spots, Potential Lockdowns
Written By
Adam Whitby
Vince Ledney
“How severe is the growth of COVID cases in certain parts of the country?” It’s one of many monumental questions we’re currently asking ourselves.

Over the past seven weeks, we’re learning that our “New Normal” changes daily as new, credible information is available. With cases still on the rise, and the country still predominantly open (for the time being), we need to be utilizing a KPI which can allow you to determine if a state could be close to major changes in restrictions and to understand if consumers would be less likely to shop in the future based on COVID.

At this time, our approach to evaluating COVID will not be about aligning a date to when an improved retail environment will happen. Instead, we will be showing hot spots and trends in COVID new cases by state which vary when evaluating recency vs. ongoing longer average. As constant change continues to churn out new policies, restrictions and trends, this data will be crucial in predicting consumer and governmental behavior in these spots.

 

In the map below, we are taking the most recent 3-day average of % new cases divided by the 14-day average of % new cases at the state level to determine which states are regressing in their health as opposed to improving. Any state with above a 100 index would be in that regression, whereas any below 100 are improving.

Results through 8/3/20 - Map updated on 8/4/20

Just as the world changes daily, we will continually evaluate our approach to ensure we stay close to the ongoing issues impacting business.